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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Tennessee has surged: up 313% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+313%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Tennessee: up 313% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.2–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.2–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.23.05.3
20274.23.15.4
20284.33.15.4
20294.33.25.5
20304.43.25.5

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfarland1619931967
Collinwood1420251968
Oliver Spgs1320221966
Signal Mtn1120251979
Mecca1120231994
Wrigley820221966
Silver Pt820241985
Elk Valley820251970
Indian Mound 2820232005
Smokey Jct720221966
Walland719891966
Tellico720251995
Big Sandy620251973
Trace Lewis620172013
Pond Creek520251988
Jones Gap520191982
Mansfield420251985
Indian Mound419911967
Harbuck420231995
Humboldt320252022
Willis Sprng320231994
Newfound Gap320252005
Trace Collinwood320182015
Silerton220241978
Trenton220232023

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.