Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Analysis

ParulidaeForest birdsSetophaga dominica

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

About the Yellow-throated Warbler

The Yellow-throated Warbler (Setophaga dominica) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,101 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 28 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in surveyed states: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.49 (95% range 0.42–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.49 (95% range 0.42–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.470.400.54
20270.470.400.54
20280.480.410.55
20290.480.410.56
20300.490.420.56

Where the Yellow-throated Warbler Is Detected

BBS routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler, sized by most recent count.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend by State

Yellow-throated Warbler population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+80%196892
Arkansas+153%196946
Californiainsufficient datan/a1
Delaware+253%197010
Florida+70%196871
Georgia+39%196890
Illinois+217%197237
Indiana+441%196948
Iowainsufficient datan/a1
Kansasinsufficient datan/a3
Kentucky+321%196860
Louisiana+118%196954
Maryland+547%196841
Michigan-24%19953
Mississippi+340%197444
Missouri+355%197351
New Jersey+350%19897
North Carolina+108%196898
Ohio13×196851
Oklahoma+443%196922
Oregoninsufficient datan/a1
Pennsylvania+98%197123
South Carolina+121%196843
Tennessee+313%196851
Texas+643%197145
Virginia+395%196853
West Virginia20×196854
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a1

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Yellow-throated Warbler population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Edwards Plateau+301%19848
Oaks and Prairies+398%199216
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie13×197285
Prairie Hardwood Transition-42%199210
Central Hardwoods+341%1968147
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+117%196994
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+292%196936
Southeastern Coastal Plain+212%1968290
Appalachian Mountains+270%1968216
Piedmont+200%1968102
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+718%196851
Peninsular Florida+1%196834

Yellow-throated Warbler Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 140% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.