BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 341% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+341%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
147Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 341% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.5–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.5–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.71.42.0
20271.71.52.0
20281.81.52.0
20291.81.52.1
20301.81.52.1

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CollinwoodTENNESSEE142025
HegiraKENTUCKY92024
Levee 2KENTUCKY92019
CascadeMISSOURI92025
RomeOHIO92025
ElkmontALABAMA82025
CentervilleMISSOURI82025
WrigleyTENNESSEE82022
Silver PtTENNESSEE82024
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE82023
Carter GroveALABAMA62019
Trace LewisTENNESSEE62017
AvocaARKANSAS52023
Ozark NfARKANSAS52025
HoosierINDIANA52025
DrakesboroKENTUCKY51990
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY52014
AkersMISSOURI52025
Osage BeachMISSOURI52025
Pond CreekTENNESSEE52025
PulaskiILLINOIS42025
BelmontINDIANA42024
CorydonINDIANA42025
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY42021
BennettMISSOURI42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.