BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 360% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+360%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 360% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Yellow-throated Warbler In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.05–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.05–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.040.15
20260.100.040.16
20270.100.050.16
20280.100.050.16
20290.110.050.16

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HearneTEXAS22024
Wills PointTEXAS22023
DecaturTEXAS22024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12022
NobleOKLAHOMA12024
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12010
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12024
MuldoonTEXAS12022
GauseTEXAS11994
Massey LakeTEXAS12013
LydiaTEXAS12022
DikeTEXAS12023
CayugaTEXAS12006
CarlosTEXAS12012
BonnerTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.