BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 222% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+222%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
289Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 222% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.61.21.9
20261.61.32.0
20271.61.32.0
20281.61.32.0
20291.71.32.0

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colonels IslandGEORGIA282023
ApalachicolaFLORIDA152024
BranchvilleVIRGINIA142024
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA132024
Port St JoeFLORIDA122011
PineoraGEORGIA122018
Maple HillNORTH-CAROLINA122023
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA122017
Warrior StdALABAMA112024
Gainestown FerryALABAMA112015
RiceboroGEORGIA112023
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI112019
Trace AttalaMISSISSIPPI112019
Big SandyTENNESSEE112024
SurryVIRGINIA112024
WoodbineGEORGIA102024
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA92023
BaxleyGEORGIA92019
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA92009
NewvilleVIRGINIA92024
Pineora 2GEORGIA82024
Sheep RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA82024
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA82019
Adams RunSOUTH-CAROLINA82024
GreensboroALABAMA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.