BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 211% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+211%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 211% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-throated Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.09–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.09–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.070.59
20260.340.070.60
20270.340.080.60
20280.340.080.60
20290.350.090.61

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KraemerLOUISIANA42024
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY32024
FreetownLOUISIANA31999
DundeeMISSISSIPPI32021
CommerceMISSISSIPPI31981
HughesARKANSAS22023
South BendARKANSAS22009
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22021
Morgan CityLOUISIANA21976
GibsonLOUISIANA22001
BerwickLOUISIANA22011
Morgan CityLOUISIANA22013
IsolaMISSISSIPPI22021
HarrisburgARKANSAS11974
AugustaARKANSAS11992
SaffellARKANSAS12014
EnglandARKANSAS12024
WilsonARKANSAS12011
BardwellKENTUCKY12003
RoselandLOUISIANA11992
ShawLOUISIANA11990
RayvilleLOUISIANA11988
RamahLOUISIANA12024
GonzalesLOUISIANA12011
FrogmoreLOUISIANA11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.