BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+270%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
216Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.6–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.6–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.52.2
20271.91.62.2
20281.91.62.2
20291.91.62.3
20302.01.62.3

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY352018
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA332021
HanoverWEST-VIRGINIA212025
SuttonWEST-VIRGINIA192025
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA172024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY162024
McfarlandTENNESSEE161993
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA162025
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA162024
IsomVIRGINIA152024
MonticelloKENTUCKY142022
ParadiseWEST-VIRGINIA142025
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA142025
Oliver SpgsTENNESSEE132022
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA122025
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA122023
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA112025
Signal MtnTENNESSEE112025
MeccaTENNESSEE112023
WelchWEST-VIRGINIA112025
NicutWEST-VIRGINIA112025
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA102025
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA102025
HubbardstownWEST-VIRGINIA102025
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY91978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.