BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 284% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+284%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
214Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 284% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 1.6–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.9 (95% range 1.6–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.52.2
20261.91.52.2
20271.91.62.2
20281.91.62.2
20291.91.62.3

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY352018
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA332021
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA262024
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA222024
HanoverWEST-VIRGINIA212024
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA172024
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA172024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY162024
McfarlandTENNESSEE161993
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA162024
IsomVIRGINIA152024
WelchWEST-VIRGINIA152022
SuttonWEST-VIRGINIA152024
MonticelloKENTUCKY142022
NicutWEST-VIRGINIA142024
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA132024
Elk ValleyTENNESSEE132022
Oliver SpgsTENNESSEE132022
GhentWEST-VIRGINIA132024
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA122023
Mountain CtyGEORGIA112024
MeccaTENNESSEE112023
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY91978
Tar HollowOHIO92024
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.