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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Mississippi has surged: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+337%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Mississippi: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Mississippi is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.05–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Mississippi is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.05–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.020.89
20260.460.030.90
20270.470.040.90
20280.480.040.91
20290.490.050.92

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace Lorman1120192016
Trace Attala1120192016
Oak Ridge Vick620212016
Duffee519971975
Trace Central520222008
Cockrum420242012
Dundee320212002
Commerce319811981
Sandy Creek319981993
Trace Madison320192015
Lake Mary219901974
Isola220212021
Olive Branch220002000
Lake220242019
Macon219681968
Trace South220192016
Grenada Lake220192019
Beverly119981973
Benton120101978
Utica120152015
Lake Como120132013
Fayette120072007
Okatibbee L.120002000
Delta N.F.120212008
Forest120232002

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.