BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in West Virginia has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

20×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in West Virginia: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.2 (95% range 4.1–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.2 (95% range 4.1–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.93.86.0
20275.03.96.1
20285.13.96.2
20295.24.06.3
20305.24.16.4

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stollings3320211994
Hanover2120251980
Sutton1920251977
Strange Crk1620251992
Josephs Mill1620241993
Paradise1420251975
Smithfield1420251993
Cedarville1220231983
Welch1120251992
Nicut1120251986
Clear Creek1020251988
Hubbardstown1020251966
Smoot920252021
Yawkey920241967
Ghent820251990
Pt Pleasant720251995
Clendenin720251979
Three Forks720252002
Monongah720221984
Meadland620251997
Moundsville620251998
Bowden620252000
Fayetteville519951980
Valley Head520252008
Mcdonald520231993

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.