BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Texas has surged: up 610% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+610%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Texas: up 610% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.09–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.09–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.080.33
20260.200.080.33
20270.210.080.33
20280.210.090.34
20290.210.090.34

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winnie819971997
Utopia520241980
Indian Mtn420242001
Big Sandy Bith320242015
Neches Bith320172016
Diboll320241973
Montell320231995
Hearne220242003
Boerne220232008
Town Bluff220241986
New Waverly220071970
Crossroads220231998
Leakey220241995
Union Hill220232012
Liberty Hill220231987
Rockspring220242016
Bon Wier220241997
Wills Point220232023
Decatur220242024
Lance Rosier Bith120192014
Cayuga120062006
Stowell119931993
Muldoon120222022
Livingston120241978
Chandler 2120232010

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.