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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Texas has surged: up 643% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+643%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-throated Warbler in Texas. See the full index history below.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.10–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.10–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.090.33
20270.210.090.34
20280.210.090.34
20290.220.100.34
20300.220.100.34

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leakey1220251995
Winnie819971997
Utopia620251980
Big Sandy Bith320242015
Neches Bith320172016
Town Bluff320251986
Diboll320241973
Montell320251995
Liberty Hill320251987
Indian Mtn320252001
Hearne220242003
Boerne220232008
New Waverly220071970
Crossroads220231998
Fred220251998
Union Hill220232012
Rockspring220242016
Alexander St220251995
Bon Wier220251997
Mt. Selman220251998
Wills Point220232023
Decatur220242024
Lance Rosier Bith120192014
Cayuga120062006
Stowell119931993

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.