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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Florida has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has risen sharply in Florida: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.76 (95% range 0.05–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.76 (95% range 0.05–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.760.041.5
20260.760.041.5
20270.760.051.5
20280.760.051.5
20290.760.051.5

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Apalachicola1520241987
Port St Joe1220111968
Steinhatchee920231968
Oak Grove620111974
Hilliard620241968
Olustee520221996
Lovedale520112002
Seminole Hills 2520212002
Citrus Park520242008
Miccosukee320221967
San Antonio320231969
Nobleton320221988
Pennywash Cr320172005
Seminole Hls219941968
Belmont220241967
Dale Mabry219831969
Polk City220241970
Ft Lonesome220031970
Sanderson220211971
Mt. Olive220242002
Blackwater220161994
Hixtown Swmp220221987
Pinetta220241989
Ft Mccoy220241987
Flemington219951988

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.