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Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Maryland has surged: up 538% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+538%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Maryland: up 538% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Maryland is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.12–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Maryland is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.12–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.080.90
20260.500.090.91
20270.510.100.92
20280.520.110.93
20290.530.120.94

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Island Creek1620241992
Cokesbury720241966
Furnace Town620242015
Indiantown420141977
Sinepuxent419691969
Davidsnville420231993
Eklo320012001
Jennings320242013
Piney Neck219721972
Forest Grove220222022
Pr Frederick220242016
Floyd120241981
Oldtown120171987
Williamsport120142014
Smithsburg119861986
Wolfsville120222022
Silver Spg119751975
Olney119971997
Warfieldsbrg119801980
Pleasant Val119681968
Van Bibber120101966
Berlin120241980
Earlton120222016
Broomes Isl119861968
Pt Republic119891986

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.