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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in North Carolina has surged: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+108%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in North Carolina: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.53.4
20272.51.53.4
20282.51.63.5
20292.51.63.5
20302.61.63.5

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maple Hill1220231995
Rheasville1220172011
Fontana1120251968
Arcola1120251971
Highlands1020251994
Goldston920222001
Ernul920092001
Osmond820252004
Uwharrie Nf820001993
Supply720251992
Durham720251991
Brevard620251988
California620131973
Youngsville620251966
Spring Hope620252002
Cherryville519661966
Jamesville520251983
Newport520231995
Murphy520241996
Dortches520251990
Jackson520171996
Sturgills520252010
Gupton520252001
Washington520252001
Merrimon420231968

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseyohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.