BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in North Carolina has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in North Carolina: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.53.4
20262.51.53.4
20272.51.53.5
20282.51.63.5
20292.51.63.5

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fontana2620241968
Brevard1320241988
California 21320242014
Maple Hill1220231995
Rheasville1220172011
Arcola1020241971
Goldston920222001
Ernul920092001
Sheep Ridge820241994
Uwharrie Nf820001993
Dortches720241990
Gupton720242001
California620131973
Spring Hope620242002
Cherryville519661966
Jamesville520241983
Newport520231995
Murphy520241996
Durham520241991
Jackson520171996
Washington520242001
Merrimon420231968
Youngsville420241966
Cokesbury420242002
Osmond420242004

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseyohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.