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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Ohio has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

13×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Ohio: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.75–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.75–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.75–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.681.4
20271.10.701.5
20281.10.711.5
20291.10.731.5
20301.10.751.5

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow920241992
Rome920251966
Shawnee S.F. 2820192002
Scioto Trail620131992
Wayne N.F.520251992
Pike S.F.520131993
Shawnee S.F.420001992
Mohican S.F.420251992
Wilgus420091992
Scioto Furn420221993
Middlefield319941994
Smithfield320242002
Ray320251992
Ash Ridge320211992
Zaleski S.F.220251995
Ashley220181991
Marion220222022
Newcomerstwn219891985
South Olive220251996
Omega220221984
Hebron220242023
Bolins Mills220251966
Pomeroy220161966
Bloomville120162008
Tick Ridge120191993

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.