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Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Alabama has surged: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Alabama: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.54–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.54–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.870.511.2
20260.880.521.2
20270.880.531.2
20280.890.531.2
20290.900.541.3

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Borden Springs 21720242001
Warrior Std1120241977
Gainestown Ferry1120152000
Greensboro720241966
Riverside720131999
Carter Grove620192019
St Florian520241969
Swaim520242009
Grove Hill420231983
Mentone420221993
Riderwood320211969
Blocton320231969
Liberty City320051999
Mt. Gilead320241994
Nixburg 2320222001
Sprott-Cahaba Riv320141999
Hillsboro219851985
Smyer Lake220101966
Mt Olive220121966
Maytown220231966
Linden220231973
Billingsley220191966
Cottonton220231975
Newton220242017
South220241971

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.