BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Alabama has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Alabama: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.56–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.92Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.56–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.890.531.3
20270.900.541.3
20280.910.551.3
20290.910.561.3
20300.920.561.3

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Borden Springs 21720242001
Gainestown Ferry1120152000
Elkmont820251999
Riverside720131999
Warrior Std620251977
South620251971
Carter Grove620192019
St Florian520251969
Greensboro520251966
Youngtown520251993
Grove Hill420231983
Mentone420221993
Riderwood320211969
Wedgeworth320251979
Liberty City320051999
Carrollton320251993
Nixburg 2320222001
Sprott-Cahaba Riv320141999
Hillsboro219851985
Swaim220252009
Smyer Lake220101966
Mt Olive220121966
Maytown220241966
Linden220231973
Sprague220251975

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.