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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Louisiana has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+118%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Louisiana: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Louisiana is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Louisiana is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.000.77
20270.290.000.77
20280.290.000.77
20290.290.000.77
20300.290.000.77

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kraemer620252001
Atchafalaya520251995
Freetown319991991
Lafitte319901987
Easton319891967
Esther319951995
Marion319901990
Ivan 2320252014
Morgan City219761976
Ivan220131998
Cypress219821970
Fillmore219791969
Gibson220012001
Morgan City220132011
Flat Creek220241998
Turkey Creek219991999
Mount Union220251998
Natchez220252025
Berwick220112011
Sabine Nwr220021993
Derry 2220021992
Cheniere220251989
Haughton120102007
Tensas Nwr120151987
Roseland119921968

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.