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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Kentucky has surged: up 437% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+437%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-throated Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Kentucky: up 437% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.1–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.93.5
20262.71.93.5
20272.82.03.5
20282.82.03.6
20292.92.13.6

Yellow-throated Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd Gp3520181966
Beattyville 21620242006
Monticello1420221992
Hegira920241992
Pine Ridge919781967
Levee 2920192010
Pippa Passes719971988
Beattyville720011966
Kehoe719921972
Carter720241976
Staffordsvil719971996
Drakesboro519901976
Mammoth Cave520141996
Phelps519961979
Canton420231970
Johnsonville420211971
Gesling419721972
Paintsville419951979
Campton420211979
Sulphur Lick320222000
Sunnybrook320221977
Hudson320241966
Joy320211982
Porter320231966
Bardwell 2320242007

Yellow-throated Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.