BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Peninsular Florida has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-throated Warbler in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Yellow-throated Warbler In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.59
20260.170.000.59
20270.170.000.58
20280.160.000.58
20290.160.000.57

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Citrus ParkFLORIDA52024
San AntonioFLORIDA32023
NobletonFLORIDA32022
Pennywash CrFLORIDA32017
Dale MabryFLORIDA21983
Polk CityFLORIDA22024
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22003
Ft MccoyFLORIDA22024
FlemingtonFLORIDA21995
AripekaFLORIDA22022
Mt. OliveFLORIDA22024
Green SwampFLORIDA22019
MicanopyFLORIDA11990
RomeoFLORIDA12005
Myakka HeadFLORIDA11999
St AugustineFLORIDA12023
BelmoreFLORIDA11998
MabelFLORIDA12007
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12010
AlturasFLORIDA11986
KenansvilleFLORIDA12021
IndiantownFLORIDA11999
DeanvilleFLORIDA12013
Winter GardnFLORIDA12014
KissimmeeFLORIDA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.