BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Piedmont has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+159%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Piedmont: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.41–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.41–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.720.361.1
20260.730.381.1
20270.740.391.1
20280.750.401.1
20290.760.411.1

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA112019
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA102024
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA92003
GoldstonNORTH-CAROLINA92022
BrodnaxVIRGINIA92024
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA82000
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA72024
CherryvilleNORTH-CAROLINA51966
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA52024
Plum BranchSOUTH-CAROLINA52024
RidgewaySOUTH-CAROLINA52019
MannboroVIRGINIA52024
Holly SprsGEORGIA41983
JulietteGEORGIA42024
Carrs StationGEORGIA42024
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA42024
OsmondNORTH-CAROLINA42024
Liberty CityALABAMA32005
Nixburg 2ALABAMA32022
SharonGEORGIA32022
Rock BranchGEORGIA32024
EkloMARYLAND32001
CopelandNORTH-CAROLINA31976
BiscoeNORTH-CAROLINA32017
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.