BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Piedmont has surged: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+200%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Piedmont: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.43–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.43–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.760.391.1
20270.770.401.1
20280.780.411.1
20290.790.421.2
20300.800.431.2

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrodnaxVIRGINIA122025
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA112025
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA112019
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA92003
GoldstonNORTH-CAROLINA92022
OsmondNORTH-CAROLINA82025
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA82000
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA72025
MannboroVIRGINIA72025
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA62025
CherryvilleNORTH-CAROLINA51966
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA52025
RidgewaySOUTH-CAROLINA52019
Holly SprsGEORGIA41983
Plum BranchSOUTH-CAROLINA42025
GreenwoodSOUTH-CAROLINA42025
Liberty CityALABAMA32005
Nixburg 2ALABAMA32022
SharonGEORGIA32022
EkloMARYLAND32001
CopelandNORTH-CAROLINA31976
BiscoeNORTH-CAROLINA32025
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA32025
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA31981
AmherstVIRGINIA31997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.