BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

13×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-throated Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Yellow-throated Warbler In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.06–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.06–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.050.14
20270.100.050.14
20280.100.050.14
20290.100.060.14
20300.100.060.15

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS42025
WallaceINDIANA42024
Witts StationINDIANA42025
JamestownILLINOIS31983
St MorganILLINOIS32022
Ash RidgeOHIO32021
AthensvilleILLINOIS21992
MonticelloINDIANA22024
GalvestonINDIANA22022
SextonINDIANA22024
MaplewoodINDIANA22021
OhioMISSOURI22007
TrentonMISSOURI21975
House SpringsMISSOURI22022
MoselleMISSOURI22025
MarionOHIO22022
AshleyOHIO22018
SheffieldILLINOIS11989
NewarkILLINOIS12022
StillwellILLINOIS12001
DaileyILLINOIS11995
MartinsvilleILLINOIS11990
ColumbiaILLINOIS12022
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS12018
BeaucoupILLINOIS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.