BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

14×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Yellow-throated Warbler In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.05–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.05–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.050.14
20260.090.050.14
20270.100.050.14
20280.100.050.14
20290.100.050.14

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS42024
WallaceINDIANA42024
JamestownILLINOIS31983
St MorganILLINOIS32022
Witts StationINDIANA32024
Ash RidgeOHIO32021
AthensvilleILLINOIS21992
MonticelloINDIANA22024
GalvestonINDIANA22022
SextonINDIANA22024
ShelbyvilleINDIANA22021
MaplewoodINDIANA22021
OhioMISSOURI22007
TrentonMISSOURI21975
GeraldMISSOURI22024
House SpringsMISSOURI22022
MoselleMISSOURI22024
MarionOHIO22022
AshleyOHIO22018
SheffieldILLINOIS11989
NewarkILLINOIS12022
StillwellILLINOIS12001
DaileyILLINOIS11995
MartinsvilleILLINOIS11990
ColumbiaILLINOIS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.