BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+110%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-throated Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.87 (95% range 0.55–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.87 (95% range 0.55–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.840.521.2
20260.850.521.2
20270.860.531.2
20280.860.541.2
20290.870.551.2

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ivan 2LOUISIANA112016
PoyenARKANSAS52007
PrincetonARKANSAS52021
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA52021
Old MiloARKANSAS42009
MassardARKANSAS42014
BethelOKLAHOMA42024
Locust BayouARKANSAS32023
StephensARKANSAS32024
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS32024
Four LakesARKANSAS32001
EastonLOUISIANA31989
MarionLOUISIANA31990
BlancoOKLAHOMA32016
Mt. HermanOKLAHOMA32022
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA32024
DibollTEXAS32024
Big Sandy BithTEXAS32024
Neches BithTEXAS32017
HopeARKANSAS22023
HollywoodARKANSAS22024
Coal HillARKANSAS22023
SimsARKANSAS22024
SpringhillARKANSAS22022
NanceARKANSAS22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.