BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 756% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+756%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 756% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.19–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.19–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.150.89
20260.530.160.90
20270.540.170.91
20280.550.180.92
20290.560.190.93

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrandonVIRGINIA212024
Island CreekMARYLAND162024
Colonial PkyVIRGINIA101992
TruhartVIRGINIA92024
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA92006
CokesburyMARYLAND72024
QuinbyVIRGINIA72022
WalkersVIRGINIA72023
Furnace TownMARYLAND62024
GloucesterVIRGINIA52023
SinepuxentMARYLAND41969
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND42023
IndiantownMARYLAND42014
Estell ManorNEW-JERSEY42022
Milton 2DELAWARE32017
Port RoyalVIRGINIA32019
HolleyvilleDELAWARE21995
Piney NeckMARYLAND21972
Forest GroveMARYLAND22022
Pr FrederickMARYLAND22024
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY22024
Bennett Mill 2NEW-JERSEY22024
White StoneVIRGINIA22024
HarringtonDELAWARE12024
FredericaDELAWARE11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.