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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Warbler In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Yellow-throated Warbler in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+301%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Warbler has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Yellow-throated Warbler In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.34–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Warbler in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.34–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.261.8
20271.00.281.8
20281.00.291.8
20291.10.321.8
20301.10.341.8

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Yellow-throated Warbler in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeakeyTEXAS122025
UtopiaTEXAS62025
Indian MtnTEXAS32025
MontellTEXAS32025
BoerneTEXAS22023
RockspringTEXAS22024
San SabaTEXAS12024
Allen CreekTEXAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.