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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Missouri has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to fall about 79% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to fall about 79% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.004.4
20271.20.004.3
20281.10.004.2
20290.960.004.1
20300.860.004.0

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Madison4820241971
Kahoka23320242002
Trenton2320251967
Frankford2320251985
Emden2220242017
Luray2020252015
Warren1519831967
Williamsvill1520251995
Kirksville1520251994
Laclede1220251994
Mcfall1220251994
Whitewater1020251996
Rensselaer920251971
Lucerne920252016
Sticklervill820251970
Kearney820251994
Eugene820252021
Akers720251967
Hamilton719851972
Osage Beach720251997
Deventer620231967
Washington619771967
Tarkio619891968
Millwood620251999
Queen City620222017

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.