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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Missouri has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-85%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Missouri is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.004.2
20261.10.004.1
20270.950.004.0
20280.840.003.9
20290.730.003.8

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Madison4820241971
Kahoka23320242002
Emden2220242017
Trenton1620241967
Warren1519831967
Sticklervill1520241970
Frankford1520241985
Luray1420242015
Auburn1420242014
Kirksville1220241994
Whitewater1020241996
Cp Girardeau920241967
Rensselaer820241971
Mcfall820241994
Hamilton719851972
Elmo720232016
Deventer620231967
Washington619771967
Tarkio619891968
Bennett620241994
Millwood620241999
Laclede620241994
Queen City620222017
Pulaski520241974
Huntsville520241967

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.