BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in South Dakota has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.06–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.06–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.042.6
20261.30.052.6
20271.30.052.6
20281.30.062.6
20291.30.062.6

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lightning Cr3020222005
Hazelrodt1520241993
Winner1220241968
Howard820241970
Wind Cave Np720242003
Tripp620241967
Volga620241967
Crow Creek520231968
Pleasant Val420241999
French Creek420051997
Rockyford320231968
Promise320141972
Turton320241989
Lennox220241967
Geddes220231967
Chamberlain220111968
Rosebud220111971
Raymond220211983
Broadland220171968
Ft Thompson220111968
Laplant219731971
Custer220241967
Gorman220071992
Marcus220101999
Lacreek220221991

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.