BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in South Dakota has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has risen sharply in South Dakota: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.13–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in South Dakota is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.13–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.092.9
20271.50.102.9
20281.50.112.9
20291.50.122.9
20301.50.132.9

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wind Cave Np1920252003
Tripp1720251967
Hazelrodt1220251993
Winner1120251968
Geddes820251967
Volga720251967
Howard620251970
Crow Creek520231968
Pleasant Val420241999
Lightning Cr420252005
French Creek420051997
Lennox320251967
Promise320141972
Custer320251967
Maurine320251971
Reva320252009
Rochford320252001
Turton320241989
Chamberlain220111968
Rosebud220111971
Raymond220211983
Broadland220171968
Ft Thompson220111968
Laplant219731971
Gorman220071992

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.