BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Montana has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Montana. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Montana is projected to fall about 81% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Montana is projected to fall about 81% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.13
20260.030.000.13
20270.020.000.13
20280.020.000.12
20290.020.000.12

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chuffey Spring620242017
Cabin Creek320232023
Wolf Point320242023
Clinton319721972
Forsyth120161992
Lambert120222022
Webster119891989
Maynard Coulee120242019
St Xavier119961979
Brandenberg120191968
Powderville120171974
Albion120141982
Chinook120212021
Brusett120231987
Jordan119821982
Circle119801980
Savage120041997
Flatwillow119861982

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.