BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Pennsylvania has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has risen sharply in Pennsylvania: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.16
20260.080.000.16
20270.080.000.16
20280.080.000.16
20290.080.000.16

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clover419931981
Schaefferstown 2320222019
Stoneybreak320222008
Odin220242024
Arnot219821976
Doylesburg220232010
Mt Gretna 2220142014
Williamsburg220242012
Middletown220241976
Garrett219661966
Jacobus220231990
Sugar Grove219801980
Slippery Rk119841984
Espyville120231970
Harmonsburg119931967
Ferris Crnrs119731970
Teepleville120141974
Rothrock Sf120172017
N Pine Grove120242023
Sproul Sf-A120162016
Mars119951990
Leola120232022
Cherry Sprs119781978
Mawr Glen119841984
Austinville119671967

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.