BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in West Virginia has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+170%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in West Virginia: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in West Virginia is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.01–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in West Virginia is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.01–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.010.28
20270.140.010.28
20280.140.010.28
20290.150.010.28
20300.150.010.28

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smoot520132013
Lost River420252008
Ruthbelle420252023
Hubbardstown319831983
Spencer320132013
Slate220251985
Josephs Mill220242021
Sleepy Creek219821977
Martinsburg220081995
Hix120251987
Pedro120252025
Glade Run119921992
Bismark120162016
Shanghai120141999
Sutton119951995
Cedarville120132013
Sugar Grove120132009
Dailey119741974
Mo Of Seneca120141986
Rockport119671967
Yellow Spg120231973
Clinton120211977

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.