BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Minnesota has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has collapsed in Minnesota: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±284.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±284.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±284.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.5
20260.000.001.5
20270.000.001.5
20280.000.001.5
20290.000.001.5

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine River720241967
Austin620231993
Money Creek320091967
Ash Creek320241975
Minnetonka320071969
Badger320151983
Le Roy320241993
Worthington320242004
Brook Park320242003
Hartland220141967
Chandler220231969
Courtland220171978
Redwood Fall220241978
Princeton220151969
Knapp220011967
Cromwell219691969
Edwards219941973
Glyndon220072004
Bemidji219801967
Beltrami219941967
Little Fork219881970
Waskish219811981
Franklin220241993
New London220082003
Whitewater 2220162016

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.