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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Michigan is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±193.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±193.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Michigan is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±193.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.72
20260.000.000.72
20270.000.000.72
20280.000.000.72
20290.000.000.72

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cathro419881982
Hamburg 2320222017
Allegan Wma320121993
Lawrence320231969
Coopersville320001979
Bergland219791979
Ishpeming219941994
Scottville220231968
Traverse Cty219781977
Howardsville220241969
Monterey220131978
Lapeer220242024
Frederic219851984
Beaver Lake220111982
Sand Lake220241979
Hamtramck219821982
Isabella 2220232023
Pleasant Valley 2220242023
Harrietta120241991
Hungerford119931992
Chippewa Lk.119961996
Belding 2120242024
Crystal Fls120212021
Gibbs City119851985
Maple Grove119941990

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.