BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in New York has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has collapsed in New York: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±230.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.09
20240.000.000.09
20250.000.000.09
20260.000.000.09
20270.000.000.09

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pulaski319741974
Ogdensburg319791979
Orleans219961967
E Youngstown219791979
Watertown219721972
Alder Creek219861977
Naples219931975
Westhampton119931993
Middletown119881988
Westbrookvle119801980
Mt Hope119711971
Duanesburg119821981
Oriskany Fls119811974
Cayuga119921969
Romulus119761971
Macdougall119831971
Trumansburg119771974
Phillips Cr120151994
Rushville119711968
Mendon119871967
Mt Morris119901975
Hamburg120222022
West Seneca119731973
Gainesville119821967
East Java119841984

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.