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Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Illinois

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Illinois has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Illinois: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Illinois is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Illinois is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.002.9
20260.280.002.8
20270.160.002.7
20280.040.002.6
20290.000.002.5

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stillwell2420231971
Robinson2120231970
Belleview2020241966
York1420241993
Athensville1220241971
Concord1220241967
Duncan Mills1020241993
Eubanks920242001
Guilford820231967
Melrose819991973
Chandlervill720241971
Terre Haute720241966
Pulaski720241971
Marshall720242001
Mill Creek620241966
Columbia620231966
Mascoutah Lk620241967
Camp Point620241993
Concord West620232001
Birds520241976
Payson520242000
Gulfport420241971
Williamsfld420231971
Dailey420221967
Martinsville420241970

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.