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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Kentucky has surged: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+151%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in Kentucky: up 151% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Kentucky is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.41–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Kentucky is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.41–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.392.0
20271.20.402.0
20281.20.402.0
20291.20.412.1
20301.20.412.1

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boxville819831966
Bays Fork820191999
Sulphur Lick720241966
Pleasurevill520251979
Sewell Shop520251967
Kings Mtn420251984
Buena Vista420171967
Mckee320251970
Glencoe320221983
Plum320251968
Sunnybrook220211975
Hustonville220252007
Hodgenville220001969
Merrimac220241967
Gatewood220181968
Eastview220251967
Drakesboro219921966
Dixie220181967
Joy220221967
Shelbyville219771966
Porter220251985
Morganfield220242022
Bardwell 2220252006
Staffordsvil219961996
Levee 2220192007

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.