BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Kentucky has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+146%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in Kentucky: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.38–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.2 (95% range 0.38–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.362.0
20261.20.362.0
20271.20.372.0
20281.20.372.0
20291.20.382.0

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boxville819831966
Bays Fork820191999
Sulphur Lick720241966
Mckee620231970
Pleasurevill520241979
Buena Vista420171967
East Union420221980
Kings Mtn320241984
Glencoe320221983
Sewell Shop320231967
Sunnybrook220211975
Mcbrayer220241966
Hodgenville220001969
Merrimac220241967
Gatewood220181968
Drakesboro219921966
Dixie220181967
Joy220221967
Shelbyville219771966
Porter220241985
Plum220241968
Morganfield220242022
Staffordsvil219961996
Levee 2220192007
Million 2220242006

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.