BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Texas has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Texas: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Texas is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Texas is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.34
20270.100.000.33
20280.090.000.33
20290.090.000.32
20300.080.000.31

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neches Bith1220172016
Clarendon620241968
Athens520251971
Lance Rosier Bith420192014
Schroeder319771972
Kosse319941974
Osage319701968
Cayuga320252001
Charlie320252018
Winnie220191967
Stowell220121968
New Waverly220251969
Oak Grove219861967
Oakwood219801967
Thornton219801968
Chandler220021973
Liberty Hill220251970
Wolfe City219821982
Booker220031975
Oak Grove 2220252009
Chandler 2220242011
Port Acres220181999
Fred220211995
Bon Wier220251996
Paige220152015

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.