BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in North Carolina has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.16–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.16–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.161.7
20270.930.161.7
20280.930.161.7
20290.930.161.7
20300.930.161.7

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Supply2020251992
Raeford1320251990
Sheep Ridge1020241994
Milltail Cr720251994
Montague720251992
Bullock720252010
Broad Creek620251993
California520131972
Myrtle Grove420251966
California 2420252014
Green Swamp420062002
Maple Hill320231995
Hamlet320251996
Lake Surf320252004
Dismal Swamp320172002
Chowan River320062003
Shallotte219911966
Wards Corner220241966
Arapahoe219941966
Kinston220241966
Climax220251970
Oakboro220231977
Cherryville219661966
Craven Gap219711971
Jamesville220251983

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.