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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in North Carolina has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.12–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in North Carolina is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.12–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.890.131.7
20260.890.131.7
20270.890.121.7
20280.890.121.7
20290.890.121.7

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broad Creek2220241993
Supply1320241992
Sheep Ridge1020241994
Milltail Cr620241994
California520131972
Dortches520241990
California 2420242014
Hamlet420241996
Lake Surf420242004
Green Swamp420062002
Jamesville320241983
Maple Hill320231995
Raeford320241990
Dismal Swamp320172002
Chowan River320062003
Shallotte219911966
Myrtle Grove220241966
Wards Corner220241966
Arapahoe219941966
Kinston220241966
Oakboro220231977
Cherryville219661966
Craven Gap219711971
Newport220232001
Montague220241992

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.