BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Kansas has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-38%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.28–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Kansas is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.28–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.524.8
20262.60.464.7
20272.50.404.7
20282.50.344.6
20292.40.284.5

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert3720241967
Phillipsburg2120221967
Logan1820221967
Kanopolis1220241967
Lincolnville1220242002
Jewell 21220242006
Jewell1120051967
Jamestown1120242000
Ashland920211969
Hanover920231969
Hollenberg920231969
St John720191967
Hodges720142000
Buckeye620231967
Hays620141967
Missler620161975
Thrall519701967
Coats520241967
Gray520191967
Beloit 2520182005
Wreford420241967
Gove420221970
Severance420242000
Beloit420032000
Melrose320231967

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.