BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Virginia has surged: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+192%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in Virginia: up 192% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.54 (95% range 0.32–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.54 (95% range 0.32–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.290.73
20260.520.300.74
20270.530.300.75
20280.530.310.75
20290.540.320.76

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rural Retrt520231983
Concord520241986
Branchville520241966
Taylorstown 2420242012
Churchville320241967
Port Royal320161999
Backbay319721966
Finchley320172008
Chincoteag W220181995
Tryme220242009
Jerome220232005
Ft Pickett S219951993
Quinby220181979
Saltville220232023
Wylliesburg220181992
Brodnax220211974
Lake Anna220242021
Dismal Swamp220162009
Truhart220231997
Newville220171989
Star Tannery120241978
Taylorstown120071979
Stanley120241969
Edinburg120231998
Nat Tunnel120232019

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.