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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Virginia has surged: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+205%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in Virginia: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.34–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Virginia is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.34–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.310.76
20270.540.310.77
20280.550.320.78
20290.560.330.79
20300.560.340.79

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Concord520241986
Brodnax520251974
Branchville520241966
Rural Retrt420251983
Carters Brdg 2420252015
Brandon420251992
Churchville320251967
Port Royal320161999
Quinby320251979
Backbay319721966
Finchley320172008
Taylorstown 2320252012
Chincoteag W220181995
Tryme220242009
Ft Pickett S219951993
Mannboro220251970
Saltville220232023
Wylliesburg220181992
Lake Anna220242021
Dismal Swamp220162009
Truhart220231997
Newville220171989
Star Tannery120251978
Taylorstown120071979
Stanley120251969

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.