BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in New Mexico has surged: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+179%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in New Mexico: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.01–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.01–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.010.16
20270.080.010.16
20280.080.010.16
20290.090.010.16
20300.090.010.16

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Logan320251999
Pep220242024
Sedan220152002
San Simon120142003
Pastura119971997
Farley120252025
Grenville119831977
Bitter Lake120252017
Tucumcari119751975
Correo119801980
Sabinoso120131996
Hobbs120132012
Cooley Lake120211976
Floyd120251998
Caprock119991998
Variadero120162012
Rosebud120252008

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.