BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Wisconsin has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has collapsed in Wisconsin: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.3
20260.000.001.3
20270.000.001.3
20280.000.001.3
20290.000.001.3

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rolling Pr7520081966
Prairie Du Chien1720241998
Esdaile1120151966
Rolling Grnd820241966
N Andover620241967
Briggsville620241999
Hazel Green520241966
Cochrane420091966
Viroqua420241966
Wiota420241966
Weyerhauser320241967
Wis Rapids320051966
New Lisbon320241967
Paris320241966
Grand View219981982
Bayfield219821968
Dresser220141966
Gilmanton220121966
Mather220211972
Stevens Pt220231966
Newburg Crns220241966
Kendall220181967
Pardeeville220241967
Princeton220231966
Fall River220231966

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.