BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Delaware

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Delaware has surged: up 269% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+269%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in Delaware: up 269% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Delaware is projected to rise about 126% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+126%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Delaware is projected to rise about 126% by 2030 — from 0.17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.000.74
20270.360.000.74
20280.360.000.75
20290.370.000.76
20300.380.000.76

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Frankford220121983
Pepperbox 2220242017
Harrington119671967
Holleyville120001996
Milton120142007
Millsboro120252025
Pepperbox120161998

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.