BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.930.002.1
20270.910.002.1
20280.880.002.1
20290.860.002.1
20300.830.002.0

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ozark Nf720251991
Magazine Mtn520251997
Old Milo420251967
Hughes420251967
England420252012
Poyen 2420252008
Locust Bayou320231967
South Bend320251967
Waldron320191981
Fulton320251967
Ravenden Springs320142012
Havana320212010
Sims320232011
Stephens320252010
Kelso320162011
Princeton320142003
Nance320252015
Wilson320241994
Ramsey219951967
Stamps220231967
Hope220251967
Ashdown220181968
Blakely219971969
Saffell220191967
Rupert220241968

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.