BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.890.002.1
20260.860.002.1
20270.840.002.0
20280.810.002.0
20290.790.002.0

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S Ridge720242011
England620242012
Hughes520231967
Gillett520242010
South Bend420231967
Nance420242015
Locust Bayou320231967
Waldron320191981
Ravenden Springs320142012
Havana320212010
Sims320232011
Kelso320162011
Magazine Mtn320211997
Princeton320142003
Wilson320241994
Ramsey219951967
Stamps220231967
Hope220231967
Ashdown220181968
Blakely219971969
Saffell220191967
Rupert220241968
Massard220111967
Fulton220241967
Centerton220232010

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.