BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in North Dakota has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in North Dakota is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in North Dakota is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.36
20260.100.000.36
20270.100.000.35
20280.100.000.35
20290.090.000.35

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Denbigh420241979
Edgeley320241980
Roosevelt Pk320191982
Lake George220141988
Emerado220121973
Wimbledon219931992
Dickinson220231973
Lark219731973
Forman120121968
Walcott120211967
Sydney119801980
Carson120241991
Kempton120141967
Cooperstown120211976
Horsehead Lk120191982
Buchanan120211969
Bowesmont120111971
Nash119961980
Lakota119901990
Webster119931990
Dunn Center120112011
Tobacco119961969
Abercrombie119981968
Bowman119971989
Zap120171967

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.