BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in North Dakota has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in North Dakota is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in North Dakota is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.37
20270.110.000.37
20280.110.000.36
20290.110.000.36
20300.100.000.36

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Edgeley320241980
Roosevelt Pk320191982
Wimbledon219931992
Dickinson220231973
Denbigh220251979
Lark219731973
Gorham220252003
Forman120121968
Walcott120211967
Sydney119801980
Lake George120231988
Carson120241991
Kempton120141967
Emerado120251973
Cooperstown120211976
Horsehead Lk120191982
Buchanan120211969
Bowesmont120111971
Nash119961980
Lakota119901990
Webster119931990
Dunn Center120112011
Tobacco119961969
Abercrombie119981968
Bowman119971989

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.