BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Tennessee has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+111%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-headed Woodpecker Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in Tennessee: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Tennessee is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.39–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Tennessee is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.39–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.760.371.2
20270.770.371.2
20280.780.381.2
20290.780.391.2
20300.790.391.2

Red-headed Woodpecker Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Petersburg620121974
Moscow520251967
Wrigley520161991
Union Hill520231969
Sweetlips320211974
Whiteville220221967
Big Sandy220251968
Mansfield220231969
Humboldt220241968
Collinwood220251980
Campbellsville220171988
Glen220231966
Lovell219671967
Jefferson Cty220062006
Trace Lewis220162016
Indian Mound 2220182005
Signal Mtn120002000
Tiptonville120251966
Pawpaw120121967
Brownsville120161966
Tibbs120061967
Silerton120071966
Trenton120211966
Pond Creek120252011
Indian Mound119971981

Red-headed Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.