BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+137%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.40
20260.150.000.40
20270.150.000.40
20280.140.000.39
20290.140.000.39

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Norborne420212007
Syracuse320161969
Stet319951973
Crane320091998
New Point320231994
Bolckow219841968
Williamsvill220102003
Bennett220222019
Elmo220212017
Centerville220231997
Osage Beach220122012
Lincoln220132013
Deventer120091969
Pulaski119941994
Peace Valley120242006
Sweden120191985
Pineville119861980
Cp Girardeau120191969
Cascade120181968
Cameron120061996
Akers119711967
Wesco119841984
Clementine119961986
Kahoka2120192018
Graydon120092009

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.