BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Alaska has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-5%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Alaska is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 8.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Alaska is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 8.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025115.915
2026116.015
2027116.115
2028116.115
2029116.215

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tupuknuk16019951995
Copper River8820111994
Dillingham8720191993
Kodiak 26720241985
Selawik (Short)6719871986
Chiniak6220241985
Kodiak5819841983
Thompson Pas4920241983
Hyder4320091994
Anvik River4220241998
Kugarak (Short)3219871986
St. Mary'S3120141993
Gweek River2820021994
Stikine River2620241998
Unalakleet River2620241997
Hope2520241985
Mud River2520241993
Salmon Lake2420241993
Bear Creek2119911986
Council2120241993
Nome2120231993
Haines1920241972
Cold Bay1920241993
Kobuk River (Short)1819921991
Kotzebue1820242001

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.