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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Alaska has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-10%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Alaska is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Alaska is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026105.615
2027105.715
2028105.815
2029105.815
2030115.915

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tupuknuk16019951995
Copper River8820111994
Dillingham8720191993
Kodiak 28020251985
Selawik (Short)6719871986
Chiniak6520251985
Kodiak5819841983
Thompson Pas5020251983
Hyder4320091994
Anvik River4220241998
Kugarak (Short)3219871986
St. Mary'S3120141993
Gweek River2820021994
Stikine River2620241998
Unalakleet River2620241997
Mud River2520241993
Circle2420251986
Salmon Lake2420241993
Cold Bay2320251993
Bear Creek2119911986
Council2120241993
Nome2120231993
Galena (Short)2020251985
Kobuk River (Short)1819921991
Alpenglow (Short)1720121994

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.