BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Tennessee has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has collapsed in Tennessee: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1367.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1367.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1367.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.66
20260.000.000.66
20270.000.000.66
20280.000.000.66
20290.000.000.66

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Bank719781966
Campbellsville520191969
Signal Mtn320091979
Walland319851966
Corryton Rd219921966
Tiptonville119951972
Pawpaw119971972
Big Sandy120051997
Sweetlips119961996
Silerton120242007
Trenton120192019
Humboldt120022002
Pond Creek119951966
Cornpone119951991
Collinwood120231966
Wrigley120131966
Lewis Forest120071967
Belotes Bend119851971
White House119991992
Petersburg120191980
Peytonsville119831966
Bradyville120031966
Tullahoma119671967
Silver Pt120151966
Union Hill120181967

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.