BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in North Dakota has surged: up 240% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+240%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in North Dakota: up 240% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in North Dakota is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 17–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in North Dakota is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 17–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201623
2026201624
2027201724
2028211724
2029211725

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns12220241980
Buchanan4220241967
Denbigh3620241968
Sheyenne Lk3520241980
Cooperstown2920241969
Emerado2520241973
Horsehead Lk2020241983
Loraine1720191982
Edgeley1620241982
Abercrombie1520121967
Roosevelt Pk1420191982
Niles1320241989
Carpio1320231967
Stanley1320241967
Danzig 21320242019
Forman1220241968
Tobacco1220191968
Wimbledon1120241988
Dickinson1120241968
Powers Lake1120241980
Douglas Crk1120241983
Zap1020241967
Sydney919831967
Lakota920091968
Rolla920241969

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.