BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in North Dakota has surged: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+229%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in North Dakota: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 18–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 18–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201624
2027201724
2028211724
2029211724
2030211825

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns13220251980
Denbigh5620251968
Sheyenne Lk4020251980
Buchanan3820251967
Cooperstown3020251969
Horsehead Lk2420251983
Forman1920251968
Stanley1920251967
Loraine1720191982
Gorham1620251968
Lake George1520231968
Emerado1520251973
Abercrombie1520121967
Roosevelt Pk1420191982
Powers Lake1420251980
Douglas Crk1420251983
Dickinson1320251968
Carpio1320231967
Danzig 21320252019
Edgeley1220251982
Tobacco1220191968
Braddock1220231988
Montpelier1220251990
Wimbledon1120251988
Regan1020251969

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.