BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in New Mexico has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow Warbler in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in New Mexico is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.001.6
20270.650.001.6
20280.640.001.6
20290.640.001.6
20300.630.001.6

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock1820251994
Ojo Sarco920251968
Reserve720251993
Cebolla620221973
Capulin519931993
La Plata 2520162014
Cooley Lake420251995
Laborcita 2320252024
Angel Fire320021992
La Plata320131990
Farmington219831975
Angel Fire 2220252005
Maxwell220251997
Mcgaffey219951995
Vallecitos220231999
Escondida220232017
Farley120142014
Pecos120172003
Tucumcari119751975
Fence Lake119751975
Valencia119791971
Gage119741974
Dulce120252008
Sedan120112011
Gallinas120251992

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.