BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Michigan has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Michigan: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Michigan is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 5.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Michigan is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 5.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.44.99.9
20267.55.010.0
20277.55.010
20287.55.110
20297.65.110

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lapeer3020242000
Chippewa Lk.2820241992
Richmond2220241999
Prattville2120211967
Almena1920151993
Lawrence1820241969
Coopersville1820241984
Tyre1819961967
Howardsville1720241971
Hamburg1720011981
Nashville1620241968
Rochester1620241993
Pickford1520241973
Barry S.G.A.1520121995
Bravo1420231974
Belding1320031983
Galesburg1320241966
Drayton Plns1319871973
Barry S.G.A. 21320192013
North Branch1219991974
Deckerville1220241978
Hungerford1220241991
Homer1120211982
Cohoctah1120242021
Herron1120162011

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.