BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Michigan has surged: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Michigan: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.7 (95% range 5.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.7 (95% range 5.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.55.010.0
20277.65.110
20287.65.110
20297.65.210
20307.75.210

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cohoctah3220252021
Nashville3020251968
Pickford2620251973
Richmond2220241999
Coopersville2120251984
Prattville2120211967
Lapeer2120252000
Chippewa Lk.2120251992
Rochester2020251993
Mottville1920251967
Holt1920251969
Almena1920151993
Tyre1819961967
Howardsville1720251971
Hamburg1720011981
Barry S.G.A.1520121995
Lawrence1420251969
Bravo1420231974
Belding1320031983
Drayton Plns1319871973
Barry S.G.A. 21320192013
Remus1220251974
North Branch1219991974
Deckerville1220241978
Homer1120211982

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.