BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in South Dakota has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in South Dakota: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.4 (95% range 2.0–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.4 (95% range 2.0–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.84.6
20273.21.84.6
20283.31.94.7
20293.31.94.7
20303.42.04.8

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Britton2420231967
Wilmot2320251967
Promise2220151971
Veblen1620231967
Tripp1220251967
Raymond1020211967
Wind Cave Np1020251999
Geddes820251992
Forbes720251967
Rochford720252009
Lane619991967
White River620141996
Howard520251970
White Lake420111967
Crow Creek420231967
Volunteer420251967
Reva420251979
Isabel420151990
Badlands420231990
Lennox320251972
Volga320251967
Broadland320141967
Laplant320151971
Ardmore320191977
Lacreek320251991

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.