BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in South Dakota has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow Warbler Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in South Dakota: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in South Dakota is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.9–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in South Dakota is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.9–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.11.74.5
20263.21.74.6
20273.21.84.6
20283.31.84.7
20293.31.94.7

Yellow Warbler Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Britton2420231967
Promise2220151971
Wilmot2020241967
Veblen1620231967
Forbes1120241967
Lacreek1120231991
Raymond1020211967
Rockyford820231967
Wind Cave Np820241999
Tripp720241967
Geddes720231992
Lane619991967
White River620141996
White Lake420111967
Crow Creek420231967
Isabel420151990
Badlands420231990
Broadland320141967
Laplant320151971
Volunteer320191967
Ardmore320191977
Silver City320001995
Lennox220241972
Howard220241970
Chamberlain220111967

Yellow Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.